By Augustine Ehikioya
Despite the increase in security incidents in Nigeria in the first quarter of 2026 over the records for quarters one and four of 2025, Dr. Kabir Adamu, a Security Risk Analyst, disclosed that the record for 2026 first quarter interestingly showed reduction in fatalities and abductions in the country.
He spoke in Abuja during an exclusive interview with Security Watch Africa (SWA).
Speaking on issues bordering on Nigeria’s security, he also expressed his opinion about the recent travel advisory issued by the United States of America to its citizens in Nigeria..
He said “We just released our March report. And the March report covers the period of the 1st to 31st of March. But because it’s also the end of a quarter, quarter 1, we focused on that. So what we saw, both in March and in quarter 1 is an increase in incidents. Incidents will cover anything security occurrence, attacks of different types. We saw an increase, marginally about 33% increase.
“But the good thing when we look deeper into the data, we saw a reduction in fatalities and a reduction in abductions. In the case of abductions, the reduction in about 2.3%. In the case of fatalities, it was about 13% reduction.
“As an example, for the quarter, we recorded 2,360 Nigerians killed in that first three months of the year. When you compare it with Q4 of 2025, and interestingly when you compare it with Q1 2025, which is the same period, in both instances, there is a reduction.”
With this report, he said the military operations and other security operations are yielding some positive results.
He added “But the challenge is this, when we look at the figure for March only, there was a reduction. In February, about 900 Nigerians were killed, but in March, about 770 Nigerians were killed. So clearly only reduction of roughly 20 something percent.”
Apart from countries at war, he noted that the number of killings in Nigeria based on the statistics is worrisome and still very high.
“770 in a month is high. It puts Nigeria in the top five security challenge countries in the world, because it’s not often that you find countries where up to 700 people are killed in one month as a result of security challenges.
“In countries, for instance, like Iran, where there is a war, countries like Lebanon, where Israel is carrying out attacks, countries like Israel itself, that it’s been attacked, that you find in that category.
“Despite these marginal improvements that I have mentioned, the worry is that the numbers are still high, and that’s why you see a lot of public concern.
“If you look at it holistically, like I’ve mentioned, there are reductions, actually, when you compare to quarter 4, 2025, and then, of course, quarter 1, 2025 which is the same period that were reported.”
On whether the killings of two generals and others within the quarter is a troubling trend, he said there have been consistent targeting of Forward Operating Bases, other Military formations, patrols among others.
According to him, both Nigerians and the international community will be affected.
“With our analysis, we highlighted this element. What we saw in 2021, 2022, when Forward Operating Bases were being targeted. I think at that time we counted about 17, or there are about Forward Operating Bases that were attacked, and their armouries ransacked, stolen or destroyed.
“We highlighted that, that cycle is about to repeat itself. We’ve seen a consistent targeting of both Forward Operating Bases and other Military formations, patrols and things like that.
“One of the concerns that it raised is that it appears it was a targeted attack. And we associated it with a release by one of the major groups, which is the Islamic State, their spokesperson, released a statement sometimes in February, where he called on the affiliates around the world and praised their affiliates in Africa, and in their usual manner, called on the affiliates to carry out more attacks.
“So we kind of associated it with that, that perhaps it’s a response to that call. And of course, it creates a lot of concern on the one hand, it affects Nigeria, in fact international community, psychological. Military formations, including a Brigade that is supposed to have assets to an extent will make it a hardened target.
“But then you now have the Brigade Commander being killed in that manner, or before then Forward Operating Bases of different standards being attacked and the Commanders being killed, that would definitely affect the morale of both the troops and then Nigerians.
“And once they are mowed down in the manner that they were mowed down, the psychology and the belief that Nigerians feel they are protected would definitely be affected. The international community will definitely be affected.”
To stop the trend, he charged the Nigeria military to move against the ability of the guys to recruit new members, their access to funding and ability to move around.
“So it is absolutely important that as a country, we reverse this situation. But the challenge is that, because it is not done strategically, it’s like a worm that has the ability to regrow, and you take out the tail or the head in this instance, and that worm can regrow.
“What it does is that it regrows again. So what do I mean by that? We have to block the ability of these guys to recruit new members and funding, because it is with money that they are able to sustain the activities they’re doing.
“If we don’t block their funding capabilities, if we don’t block their ability to recruit and their ability to obtain weaponry and ammunition, the two go together.
“Even if they have weaponry, but they don’t have ammunition, those weapons are useless to them. So, we must block the weapon source. We must block the ammunition source, and then lastly, we must prevent their ability to move from point A to point B. Over time, it has become very obvious they rely on motorbikes to move from point A to point B
“So we must put in place measures to prevent access to motorbikes. In addition to that, is what the motorbikes need. Motorbikes need fuel. The motorbikes need repair. There are replaceable parts that, of course, over time, get spoiled. Tires are examples, and things like that. We must put in place through a sophisticated intelligence network, our ability to monitor, our ability to prevent access to these types of things by the group.
“So these are the kind of things that came out. Not of course, because our report is more or less a public report, there are some of these things that, even though they are obvious to us, we don’t include, because at the end of the day, we’re Nigerians. And our intention is to help and not to empower the enemy.
“So these things, if you put it out there, what it does is it empowers the enemy. So we are also very mindful of that. But in our submissions to the various security sector leadership, we make this known to them so that they can use it, hopefully to help them improve on their security arrangements.” he stated
On whether the recent US advisory to its citizens justifies situation on ground, he said “I will answer you from two angles. Number one is to emphasize that this is procedural. The Americans through the State Department have instruments for determining their diplomatic posture. And releases like this are one of the instruments.”
But he pointed out that the Nigeria media misunderstood the recent advisory issued by the US.
He said “Unfortunately, I think the Nigerian media, a significant number of them got it wrongly. It wasn’t an order. It was an authorization to leave.
“An authorization means you can leave, but they are not telling their staff, or the non essential staff, that you must leave. What has happened is that they have now authorized them to leave if they want to leave. Then they also authorized family members of staff to leave if they want to leave. What it means, however, if something goes wrong, they won’t be responsible, because they have authorized departure of the person who did not leave.
“Now they also have another option, which is more or less a higher option, to order the departure if they deem, for instance, that the security situation that they have envisaged is as such, that the attack is imminent, what they would have released is an order, not an authorization. It’s also an instrument. So I think it’s important to kind of note that it’s a diplomatic practice within the United States. Usually it’s done when the United States considers that an event of some magnitude is about to happen and that it would hinder its capacity to meet the needs of its staff and the citizens that are in a particular country.
“So if you notice in this advisory alert that the United States released, there were two levels. One has to do with the staff. The other one has to do with Americans who decide to visit 23 states in Nigeria, they advised against visit to those states, those are diplomatic practices.
“But let’s now go to the second part of the question. Nigeria and United States are close allies and recently, that alliance has even increased in terms of its momentum as a result of the establishment of this Joint Working Group, after the designation of a country of particular concern and strong threat, and Nigeria sent a delegation and the result of that delegation is the establishment of this Joint Working Group.
“Now, in addition to that, there’s an existing intelligence liaison agreement between Nigeria and the United States. And don’t forget, there is also an established joint diplomatic relationship between the two countries. We have an ambassador there, they have an ambassador here in Nigeria.
“So why I thought it’s important to mention this is, if you have an ally who comes across intelligence that would affect your country, what that ally should do is to share with you.
“In this instance, we’re not aware that the United States has shared any intelligence. Now, that’s one component that makes us a little bit concerned about this alert by the US,” he said.
Dr Kabir Adamu also noted that the latest advisory has raised questions whether it is actually a security move or a political move.
The advisory, he said, has the ability to affect Nigeria’s international image, domestic politics and other consequences for Nigeria.
“And the amazing aspect of this, is the domestic politics in Nigeria, and domestic politics in the US. In Nigeria, the opposition will camp on this. If not that they have internal challenges, by now, you would have seen statements upon statements, you know, criticising the government, highlighting concerns and all of that.
“Then in the United States, you will also see domestic politics playing in, where you see releases upon releases criticising the Trump administration.
“So it’s very important for us as a country to sit and look at these issues and see how we can respond to them.”
He commended the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, for the statement issued declaring Nigeria safe.
Dr. Kabir Adamu also pointed out that the burden being placed on the Nigeria’s Military is far beyond what any Military can handle.
